United States Politics: ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0 where ε=4 and φ=0.25

[benji]

That 51/31 is for Biden/Trump in California and that is not bad for Trump at this stage.

In 2016 the split was 61.73% / 31.62%.
In 2020 it was 63.48% / 34.32% (with the mail-in ballot/Social Media censorship/COVID advantage).

Even if Trump is down 3% compared to 2020 he can afford those results in California (basically the margin of error).
However, Biden is down 12%(!) in a deep blue state. If ~10% of the electorate abandons him in key battleground states too (or simply doesn't turn out), Trump wins easily.

If Trump lost 3% overall, the gap would be ~1 - 2 million for the popular vote between them (in favor of Biden).
That is half the gap between Hillary and Trump in 2016 (~3 million).

It's important for the Democrats to find out why 10% of the electorate has jumped ship but that would probably be something like the one-issue COVID voters or anti-war voters.

Remember to use clean needles for your copium.