United States Politics: ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0 where ε=4 and φ=0.25

[PhoenixDark]

I didn't know that debate was even on until it was an hour in. Barely saw any clips posted on social media. Nobody cares lol. Really the only interesting development has been Haley gaining steam, but that's only interesting in regards to DeSantis' campaign being a joke. Her rise directly correlates with DeSantis rolling out "major' endorsements in Iowa that haven't increased his polling at all. 

You can sell me on polls being wrong. Hell, I think there's a massive issue with national polls right now, and on the state level we know a caucus is harder to measure than a regular primary. But overall the state polling is simply too consistent to convince me that it's wrong for the primaries. We're talking about a pretty narrow group of motivated voters (ie people who vote in presidential primaries). I figured Trump would be at 25-30% right now, poised to win as long as the republican field was split. Instead he's running in the 50s. Sometimes the 60s. And btw regardless of how people read this there's one conclusion that must be shared: DeSantis is a flop.