United States Politics: ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0 where ε=4 and φ=0.25

[benji]

Last minute predictions folks. Do you believe, Nintex? I've never been sure about Iowa. Polling a caucus is hard and the weather won't help. I feel like Trump will roll in NH but I have no read on Iowa. If he wins it though...it's really game over.

I'm leaning towards yes but a lot can happen in a week. A quick decisive war against a bunch of poorly equipped pirates in Yemen could be a neocon 'rally around the flag' moment that favors Nikki Haley. 

Iowa on Monday. I can't call it tbh. Weather gonna be a disaster so it's really just about who turns out. While I think Trump wins the nomination I'm not sure I think he wins Iowa.

I don't know why you would think he wouldn't win Iowa, he's at ~55% and Haley hasn't cracked 20% and there's barely any momentum compared to soaking up the people dropping out instead of DeSantis. NH is the closer one and less favorable Trump territory to begin with.

Polling caucuses is more difficult, sure, but not a 35 point margin difficult:
2020: 23/19/17/16 Sanders/Biden/Buttigieg/Warren on RCP vs. 25/21/19/15 Sanders/Buttigieg/Warren/Biden result.
2016: 26/24/18 Trump/Cruz/Rubio aggregate on 538 vs. 28/24/23 Cruz/Trump/Rubio result.
2012: 23/22/16/14 Romney/Paul/Santorum/Gingrich on RCP vs. 25/25/21/13 Santorum/Romney/Paul/Gingrich result.
2008: 31/29/26 Obama/Clinton/Edwards on RCP vs. 38/30/29 Obama/Edwards/Clinton result.
2008: 30/27/12/12 Huckabee/Romney/McCain/Thompson on RCP vs. 34/25/13/13 Huckabee/Romney/Thompson/McCain result.
The polls also showed the momentum for Buttigieg, Warren, Santorum, Rubio and Huckabee before away from the national frontrunners.

We probably have to go back to 1984 or earlier before finding a candidate polling at 50% or with a 20+ point lead in Iowa.