United States Politics: ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0 where ε=4 and φ=0.25

[PhoenixDark]

The "pro Hamas" segment of this country is irrelevant. Republicans who keep bringing up Michigan should look at a map for once, or some election results. The area where the Arab population is the highest has been voting republican in recent years due to LGBTQ issues. Their support for a dem ticket was never firm and more importantly...they are heavily out weighed by black voters and students in Michigan. 

It's not just Republicans, I've seen so many Dems/left people talking about Michigan as if the entire state was Hamas fanatics. They don't even seem aware just how concentrated those Arab-American voters they think number in the millions are in one place.

I was talking to someone online and couldn't get them to understand that Whitmer is Governor in the first place because she beat two guys who tried to form a Bernie-DSA-Muslim-Hamas-Woke coalition against her in the Democratic primary right after Bernie and Trump had won Michigan in 2016. She basically had the same Democratic coalition Biden wound up using.

Until it happens I'm going to not believe Harris can do Obama-like turnout with Blacks (or anyone else) but I otherwise agree with your take about how nobody outside Michigan seems to understand the Michigan voter base other than how I don't think it's limited to just Trumpers who don't understand it.

It's the weirdest thing, and it's coming from people who never heard of Dearborn until late 2023. There are 110k people in Dearborn btw. For reference, Biden got around 240k votes in Detroit alone in 2020. Obama got 287k in 2012. I don't expect Kamala to match Obama but she won't need to. She'll do better than Biden by some margin, run up the score and win the state handily. 

BTW, Michigan and Pennsylvania are now legally allowed to count early votes before the polls close on election day. I will bet any amount of money that the Trump campaign has the lawsuits ready to go already, and the minute vote batches start getting added to the totals his campaign will file them. It's not going to work obviously but that's not the point. The point will be to, once again, insinuate fraud and demand the results not be certified by state boards, and then by congress on January 6th.

There are simply too many potential early and mail ballots for me to believe Trump can win either state, barring a surprise (economic collapse, scandal, etc).