08-10-2024, 10:12 PM
We know from the start of the war that Russia is bad at mobile/guerilla warfare and Ukraine is extremely skilled at it.
The Russians started to 'win' only when the battle lines were drawn and it became a war of attrition and numbers.
In fact, this geographical reality is why Russia feels like it "needs" Ukraine as a buffer zone against NATO, because with various mountains and rivers it can be defended and serves as the "gate" to Russia. Most of the Russian landscape is just wide open with railways and highways connecting the big urban centers and various 'junction points'. Prigozhin quickly found a mostly undefended route to Moscow.
Ukraine now faces a risky decision, bring in reinforcements and heavy weapons and push forward or dig in and defend their gains.
Much depends on if the US allows Ukraine to use missiles, F16s and other long range and heavy weapons on Russian soil.
But The White House (Sullivan / Blinken) always fear escalation.
The bulk of the Russian armies are in Ukraine right now, so either they'll have to pull back reserves (at the risk of losing them in transit) or increase the pressure on Ukraine in other ways so they have to abandon the attack.
Anyway missiles are dropping in urban areas now.
The Russians started to 'win' only when the battle lines were drawn and it became a war of attrition and numbers.
In fact, this geographical reality is why Russia feels like it "needs" Ukraine as a buffer zone against NATO, because with various mountains and rivers it can be defended and serves as the "gate" to Russia. Most of the Russian landscape is just wide open with railways and highways connecting the big urban centers and various 'junction points'. Prigozhin quickly found a mostly undefended route to Moscow.
Ukraine now faces a risky decision, bring in reinforcements and heavy weapons and push forward or dig in and defend their gains.
Much depends on if the US allows Ukraine to use missiles, F16s and other long range and heavy weapons on Russian soil.
But The White House (Sullivan / Blinken) always fear escalation.
The bulk of the Russian armies are in Ukraine right now, so either they'll have to pull back reserves (at the risk of losing them in transit) or increase the pressure on Ukraine in other ways so they have to abandon the attack.
Anyway missiles are dropping in urban areas now.