United States Politics: ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0 where ε=4 and φ=0.25

[Potato]

Final predictions..

President: Kamala wins. Blue Wall (MI/WI/PA) holds, plus another 1-2 battleground states. Popular vote wise I think this has been a +2 or +3 race for quite some time, similar to 2012. Biggest difference is that, just like in 2022, there's an avalanche of junk polls to lower aggregates. I think high quality polls are constantly pumping out questionable results (whether Kamala is up or not) because there's a constant assumption this will be a heavy R electorate. I think the opposite. Heavy female, heavy young, lots of black and Hispanic voters while Kamala comes close to Biden's white vote totals. 

Harris: 303
Trump: 235

Senate: I think republicans take the senate +1 due to Montana. I think Brown holds on in Ohio. Texas senate race seems like another fundraising mirage IE a dem raises a bunch of money running a national campaign in a red state, loses by 4-6 points. Closest surprise: Nebraska. I think republicans hold the seat but the independent there seems to be in a better position to win than Allred in Texas.

House: Dems take house, +10.

I hope you are right, at this point I genuinely have no idea how it's going to go. Based on what I see I'd say trump, but I feel like much of that is confected bollocks and the media + online discourse might be disconnected from the voting.

I'm not really feeling a united opposition against him, which is worrying me, though on the other hand how can he possibly be more popular now than in 2016

Americans mate. They're fucking retards with very short memories sometimes.