(10-31-2024, 02:43 PM)PhoenixDark wrote: Any predictions Nintex?
As far as the issues go there is no pandemic so healthcare is not the most important issue.
The most important issues are the economy(high prices really) and migration and they favour Trump.
But what about January 6th? Well, what about the lies about the mental state of Joe Biden?
But what about Ukraine? Well, what about the Afghanistan disaster?
But what about not conceding in 2020? Well, what about the Russia hoax?
A lot of this stuff evens out and gives no candidate a clear advantage over the other.
In polling as of late consistently the Trump presidency gets rated higher than the current administration.
The campaign surrogates Trump picked up like Tulsi and RFK Jr. may lack big numbers of supporters but those supporters are very motivated and politically active. Trump basically has 3 campaigns (Musk, RFK, Trump/RNC). While in 2020 he had 1/2 of a campaign with the RNC focusing on the other races and the Trump campaign broke by election month. It's a miracle that 2020 ended up being that close, considering all the disadvantages Trump had, like not being able to do big outdoor rallies.
Plus there is the media strategy. Trump/Rogan gets 42 million views on YouTube alone.
Kamala evaded the media for weeks and is now mostly focused on the mainstream legacy media.
Anyone watching CNN or Fox at this point has long made up their mind, while a Rogan listener is probably more 'open minded'.
Joe Biden is liability at this point (he was eating babies today?). Trump is going viral with McDonalds and garbage trucks.
So the way I see it, the current close early voting is a lot of "new" voters that have been activated by Elon Musk and others to "vote early". The day 1 MAGAs won't vote until election day.
I only see three ways for Harris to win:
- Republicans defecting en masse (no polling supports this)
- Minorities coming home to the Democrats (early turn-out data doesn't support this)
- Women voting for abortion (women are voting early but Republicans aren't lagging far behind Democrats (in some cases they've taken a lead already))
There will be some surprises on election day, I can certainly see Trump lose a specific 'safe red' state because he neglected it or something at a local level doesn't favour the GOP like Arizona in 2020. But Trump has gained more ground in states like Pennsylvania and Nevada and if latest polls are to be believed New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia could turn red too.
I watched the same thing happen in the Netherlands with Wilders but the upset was much more sudden compared to Trumps last minute surge. Pollsters caught a tiny lead that spread like wildfire at the tail end of the campaign and that turned into a massive landslide by election day a week later boosted by voters who never voted or hadn't voted in years.