United States Politics: ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0 where ε=4 and φ=0.25

[Rendle]

Final predictions..

President: Kamala wins. Blue Wall (MI/WI/PA) holds, plus another 1-2 battleground states. Popular vote wise I think this has been a +2 or +3 race for quite some time, similar to 2012. Biggest difference is that, just like in 2022, there's an avalanche of junk polls to lower aggregates. I think high quality polls are constantly pumping out questionable results (whether Kamala is up or not) because there's a constant assumption this will be a heavy R electorate. I think the opposite. Heavy female, heavy young, lots of black and Hispanic voters while Kamala comes close to Biden's white vote totals. 

Harris: 303
Trump: 235

Senate: I think republicans take the senate +1 due to Montana. I think Brown holds on in Ohio. Texas senate race seems like another fundraising mirage IE a dem raises a bunch of money running a national campaign in a red state, loses by 4-6 points. Closest surprise: Nebraska. I think republicans hold the seat but the independent there seems to be in a better position to win than Allred in Texas.

House: Dems take house, +10.

You said it was a lay-down misère. You owe me $300.