United States Politics: ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0 where ε=4 and φ=0.25

[benji]

[benji]

[Nintex]

It's an outlier poll but there is certainly a possibility that the bro campaign bro'd a bit too hard and women seize the opportunity to spoil the party.

Also say what you will about Momala she has great fashion sense and unlike Hillary she hasn't tried to act all 'manly'.

Trump says he hasn't slept in weeks and that's exactly what he looks like a guy who hasn't slept in weeks.
The bros think it is important that the President is awake for that 4AM call in case the Russians attack so they see him as a fighter.

Women however would be yas queening if Kamala took no nightly calls during her beauty sleep and wouldn't 'circle back' to the general until at least 11AM the next day even if it meant losing Poland.

[Nintex]

Interesting, the poll that shows Harris +3 in Iowa had a Trump +18 outlier poll to push Biden out.
A 21 point shift in little over 5 months.

NYT pollster expects a possible polling error in Trumps favor because Republicans don't answer the surveys as much as Democrats do.

[booomer]

In my neck of the woods, Republican tend to have their phones off. Fall is for hunting and deer season just started. They won't pick up the phones for their significant other, they sure as hell won't pick up the phone for a pollster.

[killamajig]

Top 3 Youtube comments...

I was smiling the entire time watching this. They were giddy, the studio audience was giddy, feeling good energy by everyone. This will be remembered

That skit was the bombala!

One of the best, most memorable SNL cold opens I’ve ever seen. Went off without a hitch, the pacing was amazing, and I actually teared up toward the end.

I hope those are just bots. Otherwise....

The Tump part was funny tho

EDIT:
Bonus
This was political and funny too.....

[Nintex]

Guess who this man voted for

[Nintex]

The Tump part was funny tho

The second best Trump impersonator.

He doesn't nail the timing and mannerisms as well as Shane Gillis does but he adds that melancholy of a guy that would rather be out golfing and hosting parties in Florida instead of getting shot at for being the next Hitler.

[booomer]

Guess who this man voted for

Based on that shirt.

[booomer]

Tyler Fischer does a good Trump but as for Kamala, nobody does it better than this.

[Nintex]

NBCnews predicts a Trump +16 electorate on election day. 

[Nintex]

Oh shit

[Besticus Maximus]

Last few months have taught me the pointlessness of trying to take vibes checks in a close American election. Few days ago I was moping around thinking Trump was gonna win and Zelensky and the people I like were going to get royally fucked by the king of the idiots, today I'm feeling like it's not so bad and the polls might have been fucked all along, in truth I have no idea what is happening or what will happen.

[Nintex]

It's happening Nikki bros

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NikkiHaleyHQ/status/1853167666376180121?t=slHJXBWdB7930nDXF_5FZA&s=19[/tweet]

[benji]

It's an outlier poll but there is certainly a possibility that the bro campaign bro'd a bit too hard and women seize the opportunity to spoil the party.

Also say what you will about Momala she has great fashion sense and unlike Hillary she hasn't tried to act all 'manly'.

Trump says he hasn't slept in weeks and that's exactly what he looks like a guy who hasn't slept in weeks.
The bros think it is important that the President is awake for that 4AM call in case the Russians attack so they see him as a fighter.

Women however would be yas queening if Kamala took no nightly calls during her beauty sleep and wouldn't 'circle back' to the general until at least 11AM the next day even if it meant losing Poland.

[Polident]

Last few months have taught me the pointlessness of trying to take vibes checks in a close American election. Few days ago I was moping around thinking Trump was gonna win and Zelensky and the people I like were going to get royally fucked by the king of the idiots, today I'm feeling like it's not so bad and the polls might have been fucked all along, in truth I have no idea what is happening or what will happen.

Fundamentally the problem is the “vibe” isn’t set by voting age Americans. So much is children and non nationals. Like with the Iowa stuff, you saw loads of hyped reactions from people calling it “Lowa.”

[benji]

Spoiler:  (click to show)(click to hide)

[booomer]

Shocking stuff. Kamala avoiding the mess her office created in 2013 with Prop 47. 

Howard Jones must have had a time machine.

Aspirations in the clouds
but your hopes go down the drain

[MMaRsu]

These black folks all think Trump is gonna do shit for them.. Fucking lmao.

And this guy, thinking China pays for the tariffs on his t-shirts.. Like what?

[Nintex]

Trump did shit for them the 1st time. So why not again?

The tarrifs are interesting. Will work for things like cars, trucks, equipment etc. . Won't for small beans. Better than every industry being cucked by China like the EU.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1853430137288614276?t=UdCGAK8BuA-h9biImaUWOg&s=19[/tweet]

Hollywood could never

[Cauliflower Of Love]

https://apnews.com/article/musk-million-sweepstakes-lottery-pennsylvania-krasner-4f683c48eb7dcc57f183e54ef16e7320

Translation: "it was just a joke bro"

“The $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance,” Gober said Monday. “We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow.”

[Potato]

Tariffs don't work unless you are trying to artificially sustain an inefficient local industry. In the end, they only serve to increase inflation. Those inefficient industries collapse anyway. 

Case in point, the billions wasted sustaining local car manufacturing in Australia for decades.

[Nintex]

Tariffs don't work unless you are trying to artificially sustain an inefficient local industry. In the end, they only serve to increase inflation. Those inefficient industries collapse anyway. 

Case in point, the billions wasted sustaining local car manufacturing in Australia for decades.

I think the situation for the US is a bit different.

- Lots of raw materials and resources (EU has to buy these overseas)
- Untapped workforce and lots of young people (EU is just old people)
- Lots of consumers ($$$)
- Lots of energy (unlike Germany)
- Most US companies actually make a competitive product (unlike France)

The alternative would be to pump the state budget into massive enterprises in addition to tariffs like China is doing.
In the EU we also have tariffs, we just rebranded them to "Carbon Taxes". 

Please clap moment 

BLM for TRUMP

[booomer]

Tariffs work when utilized properly. Just ask the Biden/Harris administration.

https://www.npr.org/2024/05/10/1250670539/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles

The administration has been reviewing tariffs on Chinese goods since President Biden took office — steep duties on about $370 billion of imports from China each year, put in place by former President Donald Trump as one of his signature policy moves.

The Biden administration has decided to keep those Trump tariffs in place — and in addition, add a range of strategic items to the list. The decision was first reported by Bloomberg.

[Nintex]

100% real and verified by UNSC patriots

lmao cry more cnn

[Nintex]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/markdharris/status/1853580688999751926?t=zqA0k3Yx-Sp1Ng3CySdcJQ&s=19[/tweet]

Democrats continue to perform lousy it all comes down to election day.

[PhoenixDark]

Any predictions Nintex?

As far as the issues go there is no pandemic so healthcare is not the most important issue.
The most important issues are the economy(high prices really) and migration and they favour Trump.

But what about January 6th? Well, what about the lies about the mental state of Joe Biden?
But what about Ukraine? Well, what about the Afghanistan disaster?
But what about not conceding in 2020? Well, what about the Russia hoax?

A lot of this stuff evens out and gives no candidate a clear advantage over the other.
In polling as of late consistently the Trump presidency gets rated higher than the current administration.

The campaign surrogates Trump picked up like Tulsi and RFK Jr. may lack big numbers of supporters but those supporters are very motivated and politically active. Trump basically has 3 campaigns (Musk, RFK, Trump/RNC). While in 2020 he had 1/2 of a campaign with the RNC focusing on the other races and the Trump campaign broke by election month. It's a miracle that 2020 ended up being that close, considering all the disadvantages Trump had, like not being able to do big outdoor rallies.

Plus there is the media strategy. Trump/Rogan gets 42 million views on YouTube alone.
Kamala evaded the media for weeks and is now mostly focused on the mainstream legacy media.
Anyone watching CNN or Fox at this point has long made up their mind, while a Rogan listener is probably more 'open minded'.

Joe Biden is liability at this point (he was eating babies today?). Trump is going viral with McDonalds and garbage trucks.
So the way I see it, the current close early voting is a lot of "new" voters that have been activated by Elon Musk and others to "vote early". The day 1 MAGAs won't vote until election day.

I only see three ways for Harris to win:
- Republicans defecting en masse (no polling supports this)
- Minorities coming home to the Democrats (early turn-out data doesn't support this)
- Women voting for abortion (women are voting early but Republicans aren't lagging far behind Democrats (in some cases they've taken a lead already))

There will be some surprises on election day, I can certainly see Trump lose a specific 'safe red' state because he neglected it or something at a local level doesn't favour the GOP like Arizona in 2020. But Trump has gained more ground in states like Pennsylvania and Nevada and if latest polls are to be believed New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia could turn red too. 

I watched the same thing happen in the Netherlands with Wilders but the upset was much more sudden compared to Trumps last minute surge. Pollsters caught a tiny lead that spread like wildfire at the tail end of the campaign and that turned into a massive landslide by election day a week later boosted by voters who never voted or hadn't voted in years.

What’s your electoral count prediction

When Trump loses will you admit you’re too deep in the right wing info bubble? Because that’s the only way you get to “Trump can win MN, NH, and/or VA.”

[Uncle]

I predict each candidate will score at least 7 points and I hope I'm right about that because I got a lotta money riding on it 

[benji]

The tarrifs are interesting. Will work for things like cars, trucks, equipment etc. . Won't for small beans. Better than every industry being cucked by China like the EU.

I think the situation for the US is a bit different.

- Lots of raw materials and resources (EU has to buy these overseas)
- Untapped workforce and lots of young people (EU is just old people)
- Lots of consumers ($$$)
- Lots of energy (unlike Germany)
- Most US companies actually make a competitive product (unlike France)

The alternative would be to pump the state budget into massive enterprises in addition to tariffs like China is doing.
In the EU we also have tariffs, we just rebranded them to "Carbon Taxes". 

Tariffs are taxes. Taxes on local consumers, their only purpose is to increase prices for residents.

They're an utterly stupid idea that was known to be stupid before the country was even founded. The only reason you think they're magic is because Trump thinks they're magic and neither one of you has any interest in learning why socialism doesn't work. You show your fealty to socialism uber alles when you say the alternative to raising taxes on Americans is "pump the state budget into massive enterprises" as if this wouldn't also require taxes and hasn't also been a massive failure every time it's been tried. As if it's not currently an ongoing disaster for China.

The United States being sold things cheaply by other countries is not a problem.

[benji]