United States Politics: ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0 where ε=4 and φ=0.25

[benji]

Poor soul. They are losing CNN now.

To get tweets to embed (until I make it automatic), change x.com to twitter.com inbetween the tweet tags. Their own script doesn't know to do this automatically.

[Nintex]

Not even Trump can believe Biden said that 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1851435723569672683?t=rWtG9WY21Sljy9rs3E0lLQ&s=19[/tweet]

[Polident]

Have to say, I’m seeing libs cracking hard. Extremely manic and antsy. It’s not over until it’s over. Hubris is its own downfall like in 2016. Etc. But it’s a little concerning when the most die hard guys are acting this way. 

…do I need to dig out my pink cat ear beanie?

[Nintex]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DefiantWorld/status/1851529471041683817?t=gVHrYcLp4vlESxJEjR3jhQ&s=19[/tweet]

GOAT shit poster

[Nintex]

This was the most difficult one, looks like Trump has it give or take a few more additional garbage points he'll pick up this week.

[Nintex]

Trump protecting the right to vote 

[dontasemebr0]

ABC accidentally aired election results of Harris winning PA by 5%

[PhoenixDark]

Final predictions..

President: Kamala wins. Blue Wall (MI/WI/PA) holds, plus another 1-2 battleground states. Popular vote wise I think this has been a +2 or +3 race for quite some time, similar to 2012. Biggest difference is that, just like in 2022, there's an avalanche of junk polls to lower aggregates. I think high quality polls are constantly pumping out questionable results (whether Kamala is up or not) because there's a constant assumption this will be a heavy R electorate. I think the opposite. Heavy female, heavy young, lots of black and Hispanic voters while Kamala comes close to Biden's white vote totals. 

Harris: 303
Trump: 235

Senate: I think republicans take the senate +1 due to Montana. I think Brown holds on in Ohio. Texas senate race seems like another fundraising mirage IE a dem raises a bunch of money running a national campaign in a red state, loses by 4-6 points. Closest surprise: Nebraska. I think republicans hold the seat but the independent there seems to be in a better position to win than Allred in Texas.

House: Dems take house, +10.

[Gamegirl Nostalgia]

I want a Kamala emote so she better win. 

[booomer]

I will just go with the RCP no-Tossup Averages as of today. Since most polls pull left as we have seen in the past. The number below will lower than what happens on Election Day


Trump 287   Harris 251
Senate -  Republicans +2
House (RCP Does not do a no-tossup so will use 538) -   Republicans +6

The amount of bitter tears, here and on resetera: Priceless!

[dontasemebr0]

[Besticus Maximus]

Final predictions..

President: Kamala wins. Blue Wall (MI/WI/PA) holds, plus another 1-2 battleground states. Popular vote wise I think this has been a +2 or +3 race for quite some time, similar to 2012. Biggest difference is that, just like in 2022, there's an avalanche of junk polls to lower aggregates. I think high quality polls are constantly pumping out questionable results (whether Kamala is up or not) because there's a constant assumption this will be a heavy R electorate. I think the opposite. Heavy female, heavy young, lots of black and Hispanic voters while Kamala comes close to Biden's white vote totals. 

Harris: 303
Trump: 235

Senate: I think republicans take the senate +1 due to Montana. I think Brown holds on in Ohio. Texas senate race seems like another fundraising mirage IE a dem raises a bunch of money running a national campaign in a red state, loses by 4-6 points. Closest surprise: Nebraska. I think republicans hold the seat but the independent there seems to be in a better position to win than Allred in Texas.

House: Dems take house, +10.

I hope you are right, at this point I genuinely have no idea how it's going to go. Based on what I see I'd say trump, but I feel like much of that is confected bollocks and the media + online discourse might be disconnected from the voting.

I'm not really feeling a united opposition against him, which is worrying me, though on the other hand how can he possibly be more popular now than in 2016

[Nintex]

THIS ELECTION IS OVER

[booomer]

how can he possibly be more popular now than in 2016

Trump popular vote

2016: 62,979,879
2020: 74,223,975

Throw in the giant mess that was the Biden Harris administration and Democrats losing more of the Black and Hispanic vote than in previous years. That is how.

[Nintex]

I think we've finally reached peak Trump but I thought the same thing when he got shot and served at McDonalds so who knows what crazy shit is still to come.
Nah, this has to be it right?

[Potato]

Final predictions..

President: Kamala wins. Blue Wall (MI/WI/PA) holds, plus another 1-2 battleground states. Popular vote wise I think this has been a +2 or +3 race for quite some time, similar to 2012. Biggest difference is that, just like in 2022, there's an avalanche of junk polls to lower aggregates. I think high quality polls are constantly pumping out questionable results (whether Kamala is up or not) because there's a constant assumption this will be a heavy R electorate. I think the opposite. Heavy female, heavy young, lots of black and Hispanic voters while Kamala comes close to Biden's white vote totals. 

Harris: 303
Trump: 235

Senate: I think republicans take the senate +1 due to Montana. I think Brown holds on in Ohio. Texas senate race seems like another fundraising mirage IE a dem raises a bunch of money running a national campaign in a red state, loses by 4-6 points. Closest surprise: Nebraska. I think republicans hold the seat but the independent there seems to be in a better position to win than Allred in Texas.

House: Dems take house, +10.

I hope you are right, at this point I genuinely have no idea how it's going to go. Based on what I see I'd say trump, but I feel like much of that is confected bollocks and the media + online discourse might be disconnected from the voting.

I'm not really feeling a united opposition against him, which is worrying me, though on the other hand how can he possibly be more popular now than in 2016

Americans mate. They're fucking retards with very short memories sometimes.

[who is ted danson?]

[PhoenixDark]

Any predictions Nintex?

[dontasemebr0]

Dominion is trash.

[Nintex]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1852023507082764806?t=If2vU6gGNv2fG4c6E7HjfQ&s=19[/tweet]

I'll share my full thoughts later

[Nintex]

Any predictions Nintex?

As far as the issues go there is no pandemic so healthcare is not the most important issue.
The most important issues are the economy(high prices really) and migration and they favour Trump.

But what about January 6th? Well, what about the lies about the mental state of Joe Biden?
But what about Ukraine? Well, what about the Afghanistan disaster?
But what about not conceding in 2020? Well, what about the Russia hoax?

A lot of this stuff evens out and gives no candidate a clear advantage over the other.
In polling as of late consistently the Trump presidency gets rated higher than the current administration.

The campaign surrogates Trump picked up like Tulsi and RFK Jr. may lack big numbers of supporters but those supporters are very motivated and politically active. Trump basically has 3 campaigns (Musk, RFK, Trump/RNC). While in 2020 he had 1/2 of a campaign with the RNC focusing on the other races and the Trump campaign broke by election month. It's a miracle that 2020 ended up being that close, considering all the disadvantages Trump had, like not being able to do big outdoor rallies.

Plus there is the media strategy. Trump/Rogan gets 42 million views on YouTube alone.
Kamala evaded the media for weeks and is now mostly focused on the mainstream legacy media.
Anyone watching CNN or Fox at this point has long made up their mind, while a Rogan listener is probably more 'open minded'.

Joe Biden is liability at this point (he was eating babies today?). Trump is going viral with McDonalds and garbage trucks.
So the way I see it, the current close early voting is a lot of "new" voters that have been activated by Elon Musk and others to "vote early". The day 1 MAGAs won't vote until election day.

I only see three ways for Harris to win:
- Republicans defecting en masse (no polling supports this)
- Minorities coming home to the Democrats (early turn-out data doesn't support this)
- Women voting for abortion (women are voting early but Republicans aren't lagging far behind Democrats (in some cases they've taken a lead already))

There will be some surprises on election day, I can certainly see Trump lose a specific 'safe red' state because he neglected it or something at a local level doesn't favour the GOP like Arizona in 2020. But Trump has gained more ground in states like Pennsylvania and Nevada and if latest polls are to be believed New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia could turn red too. 

I watched the same thing happen in the Netherlands with Wilders but the upset was much more sudden compared to Trumps last minute surge. Pollsters caught a tiny lead that spread like wildfire at the tail end of the campaign and that turned into a massive landslide by election day a week later boosted by voters who never voted or hadn't voted in years.

[benji]

Spoiler:  (click to show)(click to hide)

[benji]

TRUMP-VANCE CLOSING ARGUMENT:

Spoiler:  (click to show)(click to hide)

[who is ted danson?]

praying for an election that is too close to call again

those are the fun ones

[Nintex]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Puncher522/status/1852118669112836588?t=vdZEIFGMsmRu4Bu8R0Kidw&s=19[/tweet]

[Polident]

praying for an election that is too close to call again

those are the fun ones

0% chance either side will concede that it was a fair election and accept results.

Once they tear themselves apart, finally, we’ll have a female president bringing us back together again: Jill Stein

[Nintex]

November 6th

President elect Donald Trump calls Zelensky and Putin on X and tells them to settle their differences in a game of Call of Duty. Telling them it's just like the real thing and Barron is the greatest player.

[HardcoreRetro]

If Trump wants to win, he should do the Jean-Claude Van Damme split in between two garbage trucks.

[booomer]

November 6th

President elect Donald Trump calls Zelensky and Putin on X and tells them to settle their differences in a game of Call of Duty. Telling them it's just like the real thing and Barron is the greatest player.

[Nintex]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1852210612312453228?t=gXoHenRs4rxxIvtOxmKpmw&s=19[/tweet]